ASSESSING EFFECTS OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ON TOMATO PRODUCTION AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMERS. A CASE STUDY OF MPINGU EPA IN LILONGWE DISTRICT.

This study assesses the trends and relationships between climatic variables—rainfall and temperature—and tomato production in the Mpingu EPA from 2012 to 2023. Utilizing the Mann-Kendall trend test, the analysis reveals no statistically significant trend in annual rainfall over the period, suggesting that the rainfall pattern remains relatively stable with no consistent increase or decrease observed. This stability in rainfall can be attributed to various factors such as local and regional climate, topography, land use, and human activities. Similarly, the analysis of average annual temperature trends shows no significant increase, indicating a steady temperature pattern over the past decade. The empirical evaluation of tomato production demonstrates a significant upward trend in annual production, indicating substantial improvements likely driven by advances in agricultural practices, market dynamics, and technological innovations. Despite the importance of climatic factors, the weak correlation coefficients between average annual temperature, total annual rainfall, and tomato production suggest that other factors, including soil quality, pest control, and crop management practices, play more crucial roles in influencing tomato production. These findings underscore the complex interplay of multiple factors affecting agricultural productivity and highlight the need for comprehensive strategies to enhance agricultural resilience and sustainability in Mpingu EPA.