ASSESSING EFFECTS OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ON TOMATO PRODUCTION AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMERS. A CASE STUDY OF MPINGU EPA IN LILONGWE DISTRICT.

This study assesses the trends and relationships between climatic variables—rainfall and temperature—and tomato production in the Mpingu EPA from 2012 to 2023. Utilizing the Mann-Kendall trend test, the analysis reveals no statistically significant trend in annual rainfall over the period, suggesting that the rainfall pattern remains relatively stable with no consistent increase or decrease observed. This stability in rainfall can be attributed to various factors such as local and regional climate, topography, land use, and human activities. Similarly, the analysis of average annual temperature trends shows no significant increase, indicating a steady temperature pattern over the past decade. The empirical evaluation of tomato production demonstrates a significant upward trend in annual production, indicating substantial improvements likely driven by advances in agricultural practices, market dynamics, and technological innovations. Despite the importance of climatic factors, the weak correlation coefficients between average annual temperature, total annual rainfall, and tomato production suggest that other factors, including soil quality, pest control, and crop management practices, play more crucial roles in influencing tomato production. These findings underscore the complex interplay of multiple factors affecting agricultural productivity and highlight the need for comprehensive strategies to enhance agricultural resilience and sustainability in Mpingu EPA.

Utilizing the Mann-Kendall trend test, the analysis reveals no statistically significant trend in annual rainfall over the period, suggesting that the rainfall pattern remains relatively stable with no consistent increase or decrease observed. The empirical evaluation of tomato production demonstrates a significant upward trend in annual production, indicating substantial improvements likely driven by advances in agricultural practices, market dynamics, and technological innovations. Despite the importance of climatic factors, the weak correlation coefficients between average annual temperature, total annual rainfall, and tomato production suggest that other factors, including soil quality, pest control, and crop management practices, play more crucial roles in influencing tomato production. These findings underscore the complex interplay of multiple factors affecting agricultural productivity and highlight the need for comprehensive strategies to enhance agricultural resilience and sustainability in Mpingu EPA.

The study area of this research is the Mpingu Extension Planning Area (EPA) situated within Lilongwe West, Malawi. Central region’s capital Lilongwe is approximately 21 kilometers away from Mpingu EPA. The geographic coordinates of Mpingu EPA are latitudes 13059’21.7’’S and longitudes is 33035’33.3’’E. Mpingu EPA covers areas such as Chinsapo, Likuni, Chitedze, Mpingu, Nsalu, and Namitete. Mpingu EPA occupies a total land area of about 486 hectares of which some 230 hectares are under cultivation, 200 hectares are under buildings and indigenous pastures, and 26 hectares are under tree plantations. Mpingu EPA has a mean annual temperature of 200 c, and the amount of rainfall required for successful tomato cultivation in Mpingu EPA typically ranges between 500 to 800 millimeters annually(Chisonga Fackson et al., 2020). The highest temperature is in October, when the mean temperature is 24°C, while the coolest month's mean temperature is 16°C (Station Guide, 1998). Mpingu EPA is a region that thrives on agriculture, with a major portion of its vast lands dedicated to crop cultivation. The staple crops grown here include maize and a variety of vegetables like tomatoes. However, since the region depends heavily on rain-fed agriculture, there is a need to explore and implement advanced irrigation methods, particularly during dry spells, to boost productivity. Apart from agriculture, the region is also home to various livelihood pursuits, such as small-scale enterprises, livestock husbandry, and ongoing infrastructure development (Station Guide, 1998). This study used a map that shows the borders of an area led by Traditional Authority (T/A) Chadza. This area includes the Mpingu EPA, which is managed by T/A Chadza, who is the main leader there.

Traditional authority: TA Chadza

District: Lilongwe

Coordinates: -14.1428, 33.84315