RISK ASSESSMENT ALONG MUDI RIVER.

Flooding is a global hazard resulting in disasters worth billions of dollars in losses. With the current trend and changes in climate, the frequency of flooding has increased over the years with once flood free areas being exposed to flooding. The intensity of flooding is being exacerbated by socio-economic problems that are forcing poor people to settle in hazard prone areas.
The study aimed at analysing the flood risk associated with Mudi river by assessing the rainfall patterns, vulnerabilities, number of elements at risk and the exposure of the elements at risk at Manase and Manyowe communities. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Malawi, Chichiri weather station was selected because of its proximity to the two communities. The decision was reached under the assumption that both locations share uniform rainfall patterns. The maximum daily rainfall amount of every year between 2000 to 2020 was used to calculate temporal probabilities and return periods. The number of elements at risk was determined through field observation and absence the damage to the elements at risk was assessed based on potential damage given a specific hazard intensity. An exposure map was created to show the exposure of elements at risk. Based on analyzed data the assessment was able to conclude that Manase and Manyowe settlements located within 50 meters from the river are at risk of flooding. Five houses are more likely to be damaged annually due to flooding. The assessment was also able to determine that the level of risk varies depending on the type of element at risk and its underlying vulnerabilities. Considering the topography of the area the assessment reasoned that cascading hazards such as landslides and waterborne diseases are also likely to occur. The results reported in this study can be used as baseline data for other assessments and remedial projects.