RISK ASSESSMENT ALONG MUDI RIVER.

Flooding is a global hazard resulting in disasters worth billions of dollars in losses. With the current trend and changes in climate, the frequency of flooding has increased over the years with once flood free areas being exposed to flooding. The intensity of flooding is being exacerbated by socio-economic problems that are forcing poor people to settle in hazard prone areas.
The study aimed at analysing the flood risk associated with Mudi river by assessing the rainfall patterns, vulnerabilities, number of elements at risk and the exposure of the elements at risk at Manase and Manyowe communities. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Malawi, Chichiri weather station was selected because of its proximity to the two communities. The decision was reached under the assumption that both locations share uniform rainfall patterns. The maximum daily rainfall amount of every year between 2000 to 2020 was used to calculate temporal probabilities and return periods. The number of elements at risk was determined through field observation and absence the damage to the elements at risk was assessed based on potential damage given a specific hazard intensity. An exposure map was created to show the exposure of elements at risk. Based on analyzed data the assessment was able to conclude that Manase and Manyowe settlements located within 50 meters from the river are at risk of flooding. Five houses are more likely to be damaged annually due to flooding. The assessment was also able to determine that the level of risk varies depending on the type of element at risk and its underlying vulnerabilities. Considering the topography of the area the assessment reasoned that cascading hazards such as landslides and waterborne diseases are also likely to occur. The results reported in this study can be used as baseline data for other assessments and remedial projects.

With the current trend and changes in climate, the frequency of flooding has increased over the years with once flood free areas being exposed to flooding. The study aimed at analysing the flood risk associated with Mudi river by assessing the rainfall patterns, vulnerabilities, number of elements at risk and the exposure of the elements at risk at Manase and Manyowe communities. The number of elements at risk was determined through field observation and absence the damage to the elements at risk was assessed based on potential damage given a specific hazard intensity. Based on analyzed data the assessment was able to conclude that Manase and Manyowe settlements located within 50 meters from the river are at risk of flooding.

Blantyre City is located at 15047’10” S 350 0’21” E with an elevation of 1,039 meters above sea level and covers an area of 228 km2 in the Southern Region of Malawi. Blantyre City is located in a hilly area with varied topography ranging from an elevation of 780 to 1, 612 meters above the sea level. Some ecological features include hills, plateau, ridges and drainage systems such as rivers and streams. Blantyre City’s drainage system is mainly formed by distinct catchment areas i.e. Likhubula, Mudi, Naperi, Nasolo, Lunzu and Chisombezi Rivers. The study will however put much emphasis on Manase and Manyowe to determine downstream activities as well as exposure of those communities from upstream activities (Disaster Risk Management Plan 2018). Manyowe and Manase are nearby residential areas situated close to Blantyre central business district. In 2011 they had a combined population of 15093 people living in unplanned areas with Manase accounting for 6600 and Manyowe 8493 according to a report by UN HABITAT (2011). The said population does not necessarily mean that they all lived along Mudi river but a fraction of that population was of people living within the banks of Mudi rivers. The two residential areas are demarcated by Mudi river hence they all have common potential risks posed by Mudi. They are connected by two bridges, one running from sunnyside residential area to Manyowe and another one which is for people only that connects directly from Manyowe to Manase close to the sewage system. The two residential areas are highly populated with low income families with a large number of the population located uphill safe from flooding hence the main focus is on the few households that are in close proximity to Mudi river.

Traditional authority: Blantyre City

District: Blantyre

Coordinates: -15.7955, 35.04405