ASSESSING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THAT AFFECTED MALAWI (2014-2023)

This study assesses tropical Cyclones originating in the Mozambique Channel that impacted Malawi from 2014 to 2023, focusing on their frequency, intensity, and impacts. The southern region of Malawi, characterized by high population density and vulnerability to climate change extremes, serves as a study area. Utilising a quantitative methodology, the research analyses secondary data from NASA, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), and the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA). Key climatic parameters, including Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), humidity, observed temperatures, and rainfall trends, are evaluated using Mann-Kendall statistical tests, Python and Excel to identify patterns and correlations with cyclone activity. Results indicate that a rising trend in cyclone frequency and intensity, linked to increasing SSTs (0.022 ̊C/year) and humidity (+0.036g/kg/year) in Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclones such as Idai (2019), Ana (2022), and Freddy (2023) caused catastrophic impacts, including over 500 fatalities, displacement of 362,928 people, and widespread destruction of infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods. The 2023 Cyclone Freddy alone displaced 86,604 households, damaged 253 schools, and disrupted critical services, exacerbating existing variabilities. Statistical analyses of rainfall data revealed significant variability, with peaks coinciding with major Cyclone events, though no long-term trend was statistically significant The study underscores the role of climate change in amplifying Cyclone risks, with warmer SSTs and atmospheric moisture creating favourable conditions for Cyclogenesis. Findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and regional collaboration to mitigate future disasters.