ASSESSING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THAT AFFECTED MALAWI (2014-2023)

This study assesses tropical Cyclones originating in the Mozambique Channel that impacted Malawi from 2014 to 2023, focusing on their frequency, intensity, and impacts. The southern region of Malawi, characterized by high population density and vulnerability to climate change extremes, serves as a study area. Utilising a quantitative methodology, the research analyses secondary data from NASA, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), and the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA). Key climatic parameters, including Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), humidity, observed temperatures, and rainfall trends, are evaluated using Mann-Kendall statistical tests, Python and Excel to identify patterns and correlations with cyclone activity. Results indicate that a rising trend in cyclone frequency and intensity, linked to increasing SSTs (0.022 ̊C/year) and humidity (+0.036g/kg/year) in Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclones such as Idai (2019), Ana (2022), and Freddy (2023) caused catastrophic impacts, including over 500 fatalities, displacement of 362,928 people, and widespread destruction of infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods. The 2023 Cyclone Freddy alone displaced 86,604 households, damaged 253 schools, and disrupted critical services, exacerbating existing variabilities. Statistical analyses of rainfall data revealed significant variability, with peaks coinciding with major Cyclone events, though no long-term trend was statistically significant The study underscores the role of climate change in amplifying Cyclone risks, with warmer SSTs and atmospheric moisture creating favourable conditions for Cyclogenesis. Findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and regional collaboration to mitigate future disasters.

Utilising a quantitative methodology, the research analyses secondary data from NASA, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), and the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA). Key climatic parameters, including Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), humidity, observed temperatures, and rainfall trends, are evaluated using Mann-Kendall statistical tests, Python and Excel to identify patterns and correlations with cyclone activity. Tropical Cyclones such as Idai (2019), Ana (2022), and Freddy (2023) caused catastrophic impacts, including over 500 fatalities, displacement of 362,928 people, and widespread destruction of infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods. Statistical analyses of rainfall data revealed significant variability, with peaks coinciding with major Cyclone events, though no long-term trend was statistically significant The study underscores the role of climate change in amplifying Cyclone risks, with warmer SSTs and atmospheric moisture creating favourable conditions for Cyclogenesis.

The research focused on southern region of Malawi which is the most populated region with a wide variety of landscape including the highest and lowest points in the country. The Southern Region of Malawi experience a subtropical climate characterized by distinct wet and dry seasons, the rainy season occurs from November to April, influenced by the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones, while the dry season lasts from May to October. The region generally has warm to hot temperatures throughout the year, with mean annual temperature ranging from 20 degrees to 26 degrees. Higher elevations, such as the Shire Highlands, experience slightly cooler conditions, southern Malawi receives annual rainfall ranging from 600mm in low-lying areas like the Shire Valley to over 1200mm in higher altitude regions. In recent decades, the region has experienced increasing climate variability, including erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, droughts and extreme weather events such as tropical
storms and Floods. Climate change has intensified weather extremes in the region affecting agriculture, water availability and infrastructure, the agriculture sector which is heavily rain fed remains highly vulnerable to shifting climate conditions. It’s an area which falls on 15 ̊40’S and 34 ̊58’E. The region borders Mozambique to the east, south and southwest. It also borders Salima, Dedza and Ntcheu district to the north. It comprises 13 districts which are; Blantyre, Balaka, Machinga, Zomba, Mangochi, Neno,Mwanza, Phalombe, Chiradzulu, Thyolo, Mulanje, Nsanje, and Chikwawa covering an area of 31,780 km2 . (Office, 2018) This region experiences tropical cyclones which move inland and which cause damage of property, loss of life among those people living in this region.

District: Mangochi

Coordinates: -14.13785, 35.2529