ASSESSING OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTEGRATING FORECAST-BASED FINANCING INTO MALAWI’S DISASTER RISK FINANCING FRAMEWORK

Malawi Malawi faces recurrent floods, droughts, and cyclones that affected over 20.6 million people and caused USD 1,296.7 million in documented losses between 2015 and 2024. Despite a Disaster Risk Financing Strategy (DRFS), the financing system remains predominantly reactive, with an annual disaster budget of USD 3.9 million against a modelled need of USD 82 million. This study assessed opportunities for integrating Forecast-Based Financing (FbF) —a mechanism linking weather forecasts to pre-agreed triggers for pre-disaster fund release — into Malawi's Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) framework. A concurrent mixed-methods design was adopted, combining thematic analysis and chi-square testing of four Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with quantitative analysis of EM-DAT records, PDNA reports, and DRFS 2025–2030 financing data using Pearson correlation, linear regression, and protection gap estimation. Findings revealed an average protection gap of approximately 82% across major events, zero insured losses across all 21 EM-DAT events, and statistically confirmed episodic disaster impacts (R2 = 0.023) that justify trigger-based financing over fixed annual budgets. All four KII participants demonstrated FbF awareness, with two confirming active anticipatory action operations, establishing that the binding constraint is policy authority and domestic financing rather than technical capacity. The study concluded that Malawi has the institutional foundations to formally integrate FbF, and recommends embedding FbF within the DRFS 2025–2030, operationalising a National DRF Trust Fund with trigger based disbursement, decentralising FbF authority to district level, and strengthening multi stakeholder coordination through a DRF Technical Working Group.

Despite a Disaster Risk Financing Strategy (DRFS), the financing system remains predominantly reactive, with an annual disaster budget of USD 3.9 million against a modelled need of USD 82 million. A concurrent mixed-methods design was adopted, combining thematic analysis and chi-square testing of four Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with quantitative analysis of EM-DAT records, PDNA reports, and DRFS 2025–2030 financing data using Pearson correlation, linear regression, and protection gap estimation. Findings revealed an average protection gap of approximately 82% across major events, zero insured losses across all 21 EM-DAT events, and statistically confirmed episodic disaster impacts (R2 = 0.023) that justify trigger-based financing over fixed annual budgets. The study concluded that Malawi has the institutional foundations to formally integrate FbF, and recommends embedding FbF within the DRFS 2025–2030, operationalising a National DRF Trust Fund with trigger based disbursement, decentralising FbF authority to district level, and strengthening multi stakeholder coordination through a DRF Technical Working Group.

The study was conducted at the national level, focusing on institutions and individuals directly involved in disaster risk financing and anticipatory action in Malawi. Key institutions represented in the study include the Malawi University of Science and Technology (MUST), the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), the Malawi Red Cross Society, and district-level disaster management offices. Although the researcher is based in Blantyre, data were collected from national and local representatives through in-person and virtual interviews conducted across the March to April 2026 fieldwork period

Traditional authority: TA Mwadzama

District: Nkhotakota

Coordinates: -13.246583, 34.295307