FACTORS SHAPING LIQUID FUELS CONSUMPTION: AN ANALYSIS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DEMAND FORECASTING METHODS

This research focused on evaluating how different factors affect the local demand of petroleum products in the present and future scenarios. The study aimed to achieve three objectives: first, to analyze the correlation of Urbanization, Industrialization and Income on the local demand of liquid fuels in the present and future scenarios; second, to analyze the causal relationship Urbanization, Industrialization and Income on the local demand of liquid fuels in the present and future scenarios; and lastly, to compare different data-driven modelling approaches, determine a model best suited for petroleum products demand forecasting for Malawi. The researcher utilized secondary data obtained from the World Bank online World Development Indicators database, National Oil Company of Malawi & Petroleum Importers Limited, including demographic, economic and fuel sales data for the years 2017 to 2022. Additional sources of information included Reports, Journal Articles, Books and Online Publications. The collected data was analyzed using XLMiner Analysis Toolpak in Microsoft Excel to perform Spearman rank correlation and Linear regression tests addressing objectives 1 and 2. Scatter Plots were created for linear regression analysis. Smartdraw application was used to create a flow diagram to provide guidance for the process of selecting a demand forecasting technique for petroleum products prediction thus addressing objective 3. The findings confirm a positive association between Urbanization, Industrialization, Income and local fuel demand and more importantly statistically significant relationship between Urbanization and local fuel demand. This suggests that as the Urban Population of the country keeps increasing, the Total fuel Demand will also tend to increase, highlighting the importance of close analytical monitoring of these factors is critical to short- and long-term planning of supply of fuel and other energy policies.

The study aimed to achieve three objectives: first, to analyze the correlation of Urbanization, Industrialization and Income on the local demand of liquid fuels in the present and future scenarios; second, to analyze the causal relationship Urbanization, Industrialization and Income on the local demand of liquid fuels in the present and future scenarios; and lastly, to compare different data-driven modelling approaches, determine a model best suited for petroleum products demand forecasting for Malawi. The researcher utilized secondary data obtained from the World Bank online World Development Indicators database, National Oil Company of Malawi & Petroleum Importers Limited, including demographic, economic and fuel sales data for the years 2017 to 2022. Smartdraw application was used to create a flow diagram to provide guidance for the process of selecting a demand forecasting technique for petroleum products prediction thus addressing objective 3. This suggests that as the Urban Population of the country keeps increasing, the Total fuel Demand will also tend to increase, highlighting the importance of close analytical monitoring of these factors is critical to short- and long-term

No detailed description has been provided for this study area.

Traditional authority: Lake Malawi

District: Nkhotakota

Coordinates: -13.244993, 34.342048