AN INVESTIGATION OF DRY SPELLS OCCURRENCE IN ZOMBA DISTRICT FOR AGRICULTURAL APPLICATION

The threat of accelerating climate variability impacts on species and the future are subjects of growing scientific interest. These variabilities are causing harmful effects on agricultural production around the world including Malawi because of its low adaptive capacity. This study investigated the occurrence and impacts of dry spells on maize production in Zomba District in Malawi. Specifically, the study examines the trends in consecutive dry days (CDD) during January and February when the maize development is critical, alongside the temperature and rainfall data for planting and growth season (November to February). A dry day was defined as a day with less than 1mm of rainfall while for investigating dry spells we used the threshold of at least 7 consecutive dry days. Quality control and cleaning was done on the data set using Jupyterlab and Microsoft excel to determine the frequency of dry spell occurrence, assessment of its impact on maize production and the development of statistical predictive models. Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed no statistically significant trends in consecutive dry days (CDD) during January and February over the study period (2009–2023) as well as in rainfall and temperature, though notable inter-annual variability exists. Correlation analysis revealed a strong, statistically significant negative relationship between January dry spells and maize yield (r = -0.703, p=0.0035), highlighting the vulnerability of crops to early-season water stress. Predictive models using logistic and linear regression suggested that temperature and rainfall patterns moderately influence the likelihood and duration of dry spells, although their predictive strength was limited. The findings underscore the importance of targeted drought monitoring and the integration of dry spell forecasting in agricultural planning. This research provides valuable insights for enhancing climate resilience, informing policy, and supporting adaptive strategies in maize-dependent farming systems in Southern Malawi.