ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES ON INCREASING LANDSLIDE RISK IN NDIRANDE TOWNSHIP: USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING APPROACH

This study assessed the impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) on increasing landslide risk in Ndirande Township, Malawi, utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Through the analysis of temporal LULCC patterns of 2015, 2020 and 2024, the study identified significant deforestation (34% forest loss), agricultural encroachment, and the proliferation of informal settlements (68% on slopes steeper than 15°) as primary contributors to slope instability.
AHP was employed to systematically prioritize landslide risk factors, assigning the highest weights to LULC (35%), slope (19%), and rainfall (17%), with a consistency ratio of 0.08 confirming the reliability of judgments. GIS-based weighted overlay analysis produced detailed landslide susceptibility maps, highlighting high-risk zones in eastern Ndirande Hill where unplanned urbanization, steep slopes, and increased rainfall (8% rise since 2015) converge.
Model validation using a confusion matrix achieved 93.8% accuracy, underscoring the robustness of the approach. The research further linked socio-economic drivers such as rapid population growth, poverty-induced land scarcity, and weak urban planning to environmental degradation and heightened community vulnerability. Policy recommendations include reforestation, slope stabilization, and risk-informed urban planning aligned with SDGs 11 and 13. This integrative approach offers a replicable model for landslide risk mitigation in rapidly urbanizing regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

This study assessed the impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) on increasing landslide risk in Ndirande Township, Malawi, utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Through the analysis of temporal LULCC patterns of 2015, 2020 and 2024, the study identified significant deforestation (34% forest loss), agricultural encroachment, and the proliferation of informal settlements (68% on slopes steeper than 15°) as primary contributors to slope instability. AHP was employed to systematically prioritize landslide risk factors, assigning the highest weights to LULC (35%), slope (19%), and rainfall (17%), with a consistency ratio of 0.08 confirming the reliability of judgments. GIS-based weighted overlay analysis produced detailed landslide susceptibility maps, highlighting high-risk zones in eastern Ndirande Hill where unplanned urbanization, steep slopes, and increased rainfall (8% rise since 2015) converge.

Ndirande Township is an urban area located in Blantyre District, Southern Region, Malawi. It is situated approximately 5 km southwest of Blantyre City Centre. Ndirande is a densely populated area, characterized by informal settlements, steep slopes, and poor infrastructure. The township is located at Latitude 15.7833° S, and Longitude 35.0167° E with an elevation 1,044 meters (3,425 ft) above sea level. According to the National Statistical Office of Malawi,(2018), Ndirande has a total population of 135,617 and a total area of approximately 12.5 km2.

Traditional authority: TA Somba

District: Blantyre

Coordinates: -15.91125, 34.9434